Today’s the day, the sun is shining, the tank is clean.
I am shrouded in darkness as these words are typed furiously onto a “silent touch” Logitech keyboard, spending one final sleepless night before the best day of the year. Draft Day is my Adult Christmas.
Rather than trolling through prospect tape, listening for Santa or reshuffling my board, now feels like the appropriate time for a capstone. If you haven’t seen my previous work this cycle (probably should have plugged that stuff on here), I will link those below as we hit their respective topics.
For now, we’ll start with the rankings. Here lies my board, broken up into numbered tiers along with “a” and “b” sub-tiers as a way of delineating the guys I value highest. This class is dense, particularly in the 10-20 range. There are more lottery-worthy talents than lottery picks, and you have to draw the line somewhere. An exciting (and new, in comparison to recent classes) phenomenon.
The mission plan here is simple. I’m going to go through and explain a few takes, philosophize on scarcity and value, and posit a few enduring draft truths along the way. That will continue until the human sharing my bed awakens to ask harrowing questions like “do you know what time it is?”, “weren’t you tired this morning?” and “since you’re up, can you get me cold water?”. Silent touch, don’t fail me now.
This is a draft flush with quality prospects and potential playoff contributors. Drafting in a class like this should be easy, even a blind squirrel could find a nut in this pecan-farm of a draft, so why worry?
Warped Reality
This one feels pretty self-explanatory. Victor Wembanyama does things on a basketball court that have only been done on NBA 2k. Standing at 7’3+ Wemby is, simultaneously, a generationally talented scoring prospect and life-altering defensive rim protector. There is nobody like this, this has to have been some kind of universal accident and it should be looked at as such. We won’t ever have another prospect like this, (Kevin O’Connor voice) don’t take Wemby for granted.
Pining for a Primary
Again, a tier title that doesn’t need much explanation. Scoot is incredible, the most well-rounded guard prospect in a decade and one of the surest bets ever to one day become an engine of an offense. His combination of strength, pull up shooting, undeniable rim pressure and overwhelming maturity make for a one-of-a-kind combination of floor and ceiling. Where does prospect Cade rank? Scoot is better.
Amen Thompson is a similar bet, but one with more variance (in both directions). His athleticism is uncanny, as are his shot mechanics. There is more room for imagination with Amen, less has been carved from the block of marble, but the foundation is as good as it gets. Where does prospect Zion rank as an athlete? That is the stratosphere (Zion betta tho).
(I got to write the “high” section for Amen on the Swish Theory Big Board and it sums up my thoughts pretty well)
The Studs
We’ve entered the take zone. These are the blue chip prospects I would want to leave the draft with, all with a sturdy floor as a useful playoff rotation player and the ceiling of something like a 2nd or 3rd best player on a great team.
Ausar felt like he should be in a tier by himself due to his combination of athleticism, defensive impact, perimeter creation (handle is underrated), and positional value. Ausar will play (and guard) the most valued position on the basketball court. He has physical tools few prospects possess, tools that will allow him to make life harder for the best scorers in the NBA, all with the potential of on-ball wing creation. Ausar is that guy. Firmly #4, same as August, water is wet.
Jarace’s passing and defensive processing slot him in above the rest here. His feel for the game is incredible, and it comes in the frame of an NFL MLB. His touch is legit and his defensive role as a roaming forward is something every team needs. Great prospect, looks like he could join the World's Strongest Man circuit one day, strong buy.
(I was highest here as well, I cannot get enough Jarace)
Nick Smith gets a bad rap from an incredibly tainted season, I remain unworried. The same could be said for Cam, though his hurdles were much less in magnitude. The gist here is that the players that are most often underrated come draft night are highly rated RSCI recruits with a flawed pre-draft season sample.
There was never a chance Cam or Nick were returning to school after being mocked in the Top 5 all summer, but their immediate tape sample is not befitting of their actual value. Bet on outlier talents, prospects with NSJ’s combination of touch and burstiness or Cam’s explosiveness and self-creation potential are the ultimate clay for any developmental staff.
(The Lead Guard Fallacy on NSJ and Cason Wallace)
Brandon Miller and Cason Wallace are both prospects I’ve talked about at length this draft cycle in podcast and written form so my brevity is not an indictment. Both are incredibly solid bets to be impact starters in the playoffs for much of their career, but their viability as a true star option is maybe a little more complicated than those above them.
Favorite Star Bets
Jett Howard is a stud, shot versatility matters and Jett makes everything, and he makes it look a whole lot easier than it should. What separates him from guys like Gradey Dick (awesome prospect) and Jordan Hawkins (very solid prospect) is I buy the on-ball creation in a major way, particularly operating out of ball screens. Injuries to both ankles = reason for hope re: athletic development in the league. Fun prospect.
(Archetypes and Prototypes on Jett Howard and Brandon Miller)
Dariq’s foot injury essentially ruined his freshman year sample, but my general viewpoint hasn’t changed much from pre-season. Dariq has great size and feel for the game on both ends, can shoot it in a variety of settings, is a solid passer and steady decision-maker with real potential as a shooter off the bounce. One of the youngest prospects in the class. Modern medicine is great, especially when hundreds of millions of dollars are on the line.
(Dariq hype has been a season long agenda, surgery will not slow it)
Brice Sensabaugh and Leonard Miller represent two similar gambles on talent and production, though one is in a much more refined package. Brice is a big guard, had the greatest mid-range scoring season ever for an NBA prospect (this is legitimately true) and has real hope as a creator with some low hanging developmental fruit (getting in better shape, choosing to pass more, not settling for jumpers, defending).
Leonard has less “bad” habits, but is more unrefined in nature. He's an incredible body on the boards with his size and coordination and just makes the ball go through the hoop. Incredibly efficient with seemingly zero reliable moves to score, the ball just goes in the hole. Making lots of baskets is generally a good sign.
Coulibaly is my favorite home run swing of the class, though may be a little lower on my board than where he will actually be taken. I understand the sell, the rim pressure, the defensive tools, the youth. I wish I could envision him shooting off the bounce even in a theoretical sense, but alas. Special tools are special tools.
Dereck Lively is a star bet in that there is a real chance he is perennially in the defensive player of the year conversation. His size, length and ability to process coverages is incredible for a teenager. Few big men prospects are this dominant this young, and when they are it almost always works out well. Lively doesn’t have to score 20 a game to be a star.
(Dereck Lively II and the Big Man Blues)
(This may be the best thing I’ve ever written)
Favorite Complimentary Bets
The first “b” tier on the board, and one meant to differentiate the prospects I feel have a more difficult path to true “stardom”, but are prospects that fit very easily into playoff basketball. They are in the same macro tier, so I am totally understanding of the volatility in ranking. These guys are good, really good, and in other classes I would have them higher. I am a Spurs fan, and I cannot help that the last half decade has taught me the foibles of unreliable offensive creation.
Taylor Hendricks and Gradey Dick fall into a similar category of guys I really like, have questions as to their ultimate on-ball upside, but lack just a little bit of juice to get me excited. The numbers next to their names do not accurately represent the quality of prospect I believe them to be.
Hendo is one I’ve struggled with, but his limitations as a ball handler really worry me as far as a creation ceiling. I like the defense, but I don’t love it, and that is an important distinction. He’s a very good rim protector, an incredible athlete, but the general processing and event creation left me wanting a little more. If your offensive role looks to be limited, I want the allure of potential all-defensive teams. I don’t quite see that with Hendricks, but would not be shocked to see those things improve with more organized reps in the league.
Gradey is similar in that I think he is a decent defensive prospect, but ultimately one that does not “move the needle” in terms of driving wins in playoff settings. For an offensive talent that is going to be dependent on context and system, that isn’t ideal. With that said, Orlando could draft him at 11 and I would love it. Gradey is a potentially nuclear off-ball offensive talent and any team with an even passable defensive structure and on-ball creation will be improved with his presence on the roster. He should be higher.
Anthony Black and Keyonte George are two fun, complimentary guards where I question their ultimate on-ball upside as scorers. Both have the skillset to thrive as connective guards, but the larger their offensive role the more I would begin to worry. Key’s ability to score against NBA athletes and Black’s difficult jumper projection sit with me. Very fun connector/quick decision off ball players, but ones lacking an amount of upward role scalability.
Podz and Jordan Walsh are on the rosier end of the spectrum in terms of value relative to consensus, though Podz has risen up boards like a rocket. Both project to be highly-valuable playoff pieces, Walsh as a do-it-all defensive wing ace and Podz as a versatile offensive scorer that affects the game in a multitude of ways. Every team could use both of these guys, though I have a feeling more teams are willing to pass on Walsh because of the shooting projection. I won’t get in too deep, but Walsh is one of the peskiest college defenders I have ever seen. Opponents hated being covered by him, and he is going to make someone lose their mind over the course of a seven game series. Book it.
Favorite Upside Swings
This is a fun grouping of prospects, consisting of guys I felt a little too high or too low on compared to my immediate draft twitter surroundings. Fun pieces, players that could ultimately return lottery value, but in the end left me with a little too much to ponder in regards to their likelihood of success
GG Jackson is the only place to start if we’re talking upside swings, that is GG for the 2023 class. Standing at 6’8” GG has insane flashes of polish and body control both in driving to the rim or getting to his shot off the bounce. The numbers were awful, we know this, but as was his context. GG is someone I would be incredibly excited to put into a hyper-functional context (Miami, Brooklyn, Utah) and build him up slowly, but it is going to take a particular fit if its going to work. Organizational patience is rare for non-lottery picks.
Sidy Cissoko is another name who is firmly at the top of the tier on the basis of youth, production against pro competition, frame and feel. Cissoko has some nutty flashes passing off a live dribble, if he is ever able to score efficiently he will be an incredibly valuable player. He is a competitive defender who uses his frame incredibly well, especially for a teenager. Sidy is good, man, again i wish I could have him higher. Maybe he should be above GG.
Kobe Bufkin and Amari Bailey are two defensive minded guards I find particularly intriguing from a team building context, but guards I am a little shaky on in regards to ultimate upside as scorers. Bufkin has a very lanky build he uses well, resulting in one of the most efficient non-big rim finishing seasons in the country. Bailey is a strong-bodied guard with real flare passing the ball, a freestyle hooper who makes plays you don’t expect. Yet, I worry about the shot for both, particularly off the bounce.
Guards need to have real gravity with their jumper to be high usage options and hitting that kind of volume feels like a tall task for both. At that point you begin to be a bit more of a complementary player, in which case it might just be better to have a big wing. Both are hard-nosed defensive players that should play well guarding the point of attack (a valuable skill for a guard) but the point remains, bigger players are typically better defenders.
Jalen Hood-Schifino and Max Lewis are two bets on a creator, albeit one with major defensive question marks. For JHS, despite his incredibly impressive measurements at the combine, his overall athleticism is a major concern both on tape and on the stat sheet. Four dunks on the year with poor rebounding and defensive impact numbers, in that frame, is concerning. But man can that dude get to his shot off the bounce. Ultimate old man game.
Lewis is much sexier in appeal with his athleticism and smooth shooting stroke, but even in a league with inferior competition he was a negative defensive player most nights. He has the tools and flashes of success, but the idea of consistent impact flew the coop back in November. The tools are special, but it will be a while before he reaches league average on the defensive end. For a team with patience and need that is an enticing gamble. For others, it sounds like a lot of work.
Trayce Jackson-Davis rounds out this tier because, I am kinda tired of doubting Trayce Jackson-Davis? The dude is just good, every single year. His rebounding and rim protection numbers since his sophomore year have been outstanding for his position and his growth as a passer this year truly opened up his offensive game. He’s an incredibly smooth interior scorer, and even though he has literally never done it, I kinda think he is gonna shoot it? We’ll see. Good, versatile prospect with league ready athleticism and defense.
Sturdy Floor and Ceiling
We’ve reached the edge of the first round, and it is at this exact moment, I’ve realized I am absolutely cooked for work tomorrow. Man. When in Rome.
These are a bunch of guys I genuinely like as first round prospects and think have a pretty easy projection as rotation guys in the league, but I really struggle to see a realistic path to an outlier “ceiling” outcome for whatever reason.
Jordan Hawkins is someone who’s game I think is incredibly fun to watch, but his frame and defensive impact left me with a ton of questions as to how valuable he can be in a playoff setting. His jumper is smooth and the versatility is real, but he is so incredibly thin despite being 21 on draft night. He’ll play and be good, but the ultimate level of good is up for debate.
(One of my “low” reports that clarifies my general stance)
Noah Clowney is an incredible glass eater with a surprisingly rosy shooting profile. 7.2 threes per100 and over 60% on non-dunk rim attempts are two encouraging indicators for willingness and touch, and in general I buy the shot off the catch. Despite his DBPM and reputation, I was a little underwhelmed by his defense for someone with a limited offensive role. I would like to see more switchability and better instincts around the rim, but his rebounding and finishing is enough to carry his value if that never comes along.
(and a “high” report to re-balance the tone)
James Nnaji’s pitch is almost identical to Clowney above, albeit in a slightly larger frame with less skill refinement. Genuinely Nnaji looks like Hercules, one of the most physically built 18 year olds I have ever seen. His role was limited, and his touch indicators much much worse than Clowney’s, but his true center size provides real value.
Marcus Sasser is my favorite “old guard” prospect and I think he fills a need on every single NBA team. Sasser will enter the league playing physical defense against any guard you need, get up threes on high volume and make quick, quality decisions passing the ball, Sasser is a pro, I would want him on my team 10 times out of 10.
Toumani Camara, Kris Murray and Olivier Maxence-Prosper round out the tier as versatile, league ready forwards. Camara is the most impactful defender of the bunch and in turn is my favorite. His athleticism pops on tape and he feels the game really well. Great anticipation on defense, and the shot seems to be coming along. Murray has the best game off the bounce as a driver and passer, but his defense is more in the realm of “fine” than “impactful” and the shooting is limited in scope. OMP has the most aesthetically appealing game offensively, but the defense is in a similar boat with less passing chops.
All figure to be NBA players that could be rotation pieces in the payoffs in the right setting, though Camara is the only of the three I would personally select at their respective draft ranges.
Abundantly Solid Prospects
We are nearing the end, where the intensity of both my opinions and writing steam begin to wane, and the longer we go the closer we get to an unhinged manifesto. The goal is to toe that line, not cross it with a head of steam. Brevity is best.
Coleman Hawkins is a fun bet at a forward connector but man I don’t know if he’s ever gonna shoot it. The Jones/Council/Sheppard guard trio is fun with an intriguing mix of on and off-ball guard play, albeit lacking a little juice for my personal taste (or in Ricky’s case, jumper mechanics).
Jalen Slawson and Andre Jackson are two of the most intriguing havoc inducers in the class, but their offense genuinely borders on unplayable. If they can provide adequate spacing (notice how I didn’t say shoot), they will impact winning. Stawther is a cool shooter who I really hope can defend at the next level, and Efe Abogidi is a worthwhile bet on an impactful center if he is able to get healthy.
Craig Porter Jr. and Adam Flagler are my two favorite players in this tier, even if their size and role proposition place them at the bottom of the number rankings. These dudes are ballers. Adam Flagler is the best three point shot creator in this class and showed real flashes as a passer creating out of ball screens this season. Craig Porter is a defensive mastermind and a truly nutty athlete. He makes plays someone his height has no business making around the rim and is one of the most instinctually fun prospects I can remember. These dudes, like Marcus Sasser earlier, are freaking hoopers. I want them on my team.
Certainly Worth a Shot
Julian Phillips and Rayan Rupert are the two most intriguing players to me here just on their physical and defensive profiles alone. Quality wing defense is a scarce resource and I am willing to accept some level of offensive ineptitude in order to get it on the court. Can either of them reach even that lowered bar of necessary offensive impact? That remains to be seen.
Terq and Emoni proceed themselves, Fun shotmakers that may or may not be good to have on your team. Miller/Clark/Brown/Jaquez are an interesting bunch of “can he shoot?/can he defend?” wings, with Miller’s smooth scoring arsenal stealing the show. Gueye is a long athletic big with potential but in need of some skill and role refinement, Wong is another fun shotmaker but in an even smaller frame. Pickett is a hooper and should be higher but screw it, I can see the finish line.
Justyn Mutts is an intriguing two way forward bet who keeps upping his competition level and impact every year. The fact Keyontae Johnson is hooping again is beyond cool and something that hasn’t been celebrated enough. Jalen Wilson is a decent wing bet with a real chance if he defends and Seth Lundy is gonna get a shot because, well, shooters shoot. I still believe in LSU Fudge.
Roll Credits
This is quite the class, and one we’ll be talking about for a while. As a lifelong fan of a team that won the lottery and the rights to draft the greatest prospect in the history of professional sports, the lead-up has felt strange, almost entirely surreal.
The rest of the class beyond Wemby is truly awesome and one that may actually convince me to purchase a PS5 and fire up the ol 2k money trap of death. This is an infusion of talent that fuels your imagination and inspires love for the game. This is an incredibly cool time to be a fan of the NBA, one that will shape the future of the league, and I could not be more excited to see how it plays out.
With that said, dawn approaches, and draft day may be the only time for San Antonio to push in some of their draft chips and trade up for some French goodwill. One can only hope.