Johnny Davis: Murder in the Mid-Range
The infectious nature of winning basketball and the importance of immediate impact in development
Photo Credit: WISC-TV/Channel3000
Johnny Davis - 20.3 - So
Guard/Wing - Wisconsin
Height: 6’5 - Weight: 195 - Wingspan: 6’7
Johnny Davis was one of the most productive players in college basketball season, carrying a Wisconsin team with little fanfare entering the season to a share of the Big 10 regular season title. Despite playing on Team USA’s U19 team over the summer Davis entered the year more than just an unsung prospect but one that was MIA from nearly all big board and rankings. Davis made his bones in the mid-range with some truly special displays of shot-making throughout the season. We’ll kick things off with a old-school song for an old-school game. Johnny Davis, drop coverage murderer. Let’s ride.
Box Score Stats Pts/Reb/Ast - Stl/Blk/To - Fg/3p/Ft 19.7/8.2/2.1 - 1.2/0.7/2.3 - 43/31/79 Shot Distribution (% Assisted) Dunk - Rim - Mid - 3PT 16/19 - 89/143 - 84/228 - 37/121 84.2% - 62.2% - 36.8% - 30.6% (31.3) - (09.5) - (64.9) Advanced Stats USG/TS - AST/TO - 3PAr/FTr 31.6/52.2 - 14.6/12.7 - .246/.398 BLK/STL - OR/DR - OBPM/DBPM 02.3/02.0 - 04.3/23.8 - 05.4/02.4 Points Per Possession (Synergy %) PnR OBH - Long 2 - Drives 0.876 (78) - 0.922 (83) - 1.201 (66) PnR DBH - Spot-Up D - C&S D 1.103 (5) - 0.789 (73) - 0.740 (88)
Hits: Shot-Making, Screen Manipulation, Defensive Effort, Creative Passing
The only place to start here is the mid-range shot-making. Davis is one of the best mid-range scorers in the draft. The efficiency numbers aren’t anything to write home about but that has more to do with the role he was asked to play in Wisconsin’s offense than anything else. If he can get to his spots in the half-court he is automatic be it running around screens off ball, attacking closeouts into a pull-up jumper or creating for himself in the pick and roll.
The variety is here to make him a useful player on or off the ball at the next level. You’ll hear a lot of noise about his ability to play off the ball, but I find that analysis to be inherently flawed and a little narrow minded. Off ball offense is so much more than hitting spot up jumpers, it is about knowing how to attack a defense when you are not the primary point of emphasis. The diversity Davis shows in his ability to create shots for himself in the mid-range should help him in becoming a positive offensive player in the league but is too often used as a negative in his evaluation.
Looking past his mid-range creation I liked a lot of what I saw from his finishing around the rim. Davis very well might be ambidextrous; he is incredibly coordinated and has no problem using his left to finish.
Overall, he showed a ton of craft getting shots off at the rim and took them at a high volume considering how often he was fouled (which was a lot). He isn’t the most impressive rim pressure guard in the class by a long shot, but he showed the craft, strength and love for contact I look for in guys that will be able to succeed there in the league.
While an uncomfortably large portion of his shot profile is mid-range jumpers and the 3PAr is low at .246 he showed enough to make me confident his shot will translate to the next level. Shooting a little over 79% from the line on high volume is solid and I don’t have any reservations that he will be able to hit catch and shoot 3s relatively early in his career. He shot 39% in such situations this year and nearly 48% when unguarded, Wisconsin just didn’t have anyone to get him the ball. The mechanics are solid, he just needs to take more of them and get comfortable doing so, something that will come with time and repetition (and an encouraging coaching staff).
Making them off the bounce is what could take Davis from being an impactful piece to a star, a jump much more difficult to make. He flashed the ability to hit step-backs from deep on occasion, but those attempts were accompanied by some rough misses. While I have no problem confidently projecting Davis to be a solid C&S guy, I am a little more hesitant here. He could very well get there, I wouldn’t be shocked by any means, but there is a pretty simple reason so few wings at the next level hit 3s off the dribble. It’s really hard.
A big part of his scoring in the half court is his ability to manipulate screens and maximize the advantages that they create. There are few prospects in this class, if any, with his level of maturity operating out of ball screens. He doesn’t have the greatest first step but he has an incredible understanding of how to use screens both on and off ball. He’s fluid moving around them and isn’t afraid to snake back for a second screen if the advantage isn’t good enough.
He just very clearly knows how to play the game, get where he wants to go and what is needed to get there. 19-year-olds with that kind of self and spatial awareness don’t grow on trees and I for one am excited to see what that kind of understanding means for his development arc in the league.
This wherewithal shows itself in his passing as well. By no means is he a point guard, but despite his less than stellar assist numbers I came away more than a little impressed with his distributing. He makes good passes in the pick and roll, is a great post entry passer and can make passes with either hand.
His effort on the defensive end was impressive to me throughout the tape I watched. The synergy numbers were not particularly encouraging, especially that 5th percentile defending PnR, but in watching the tape I came away on the opposite end of the spectrum. He had some truly special moments guarding Jaden Ivey in the half-court this year proving he can hang against NBA athleticism.
He is surprisingly quick laterally, has great effort despite his enormous workload and proved to be really pesky defending on ball or making digs from the perimeter. Of course, I would prefer if he was 6’8 with long arms but his impact on the defensive end is felt consistently throughout the season.
The rebounding is something that really stuck out to me as he put up some of the best numbers in the class for non-bigs. He is good high-pointing the ball in traffic and had a few strong-man rebounds over bigs that left me impressed. His effort on the boards should provide his teams added versatility at the next level to go small without getting totally eaten alive on the boards. Fans tend to overlook the value of defensive rebounding, but you can’t get stops without getting the ball.
Nits: Shot Selection, Athleticism, Creativity
The shot selection is probably the biggest wart in the scout and is difficult to contextualize. I am not here to say that it should be entirely dismissed or that his efficiency numbers aren’t indicative room for improvement, but it is important to look at these numbers contextually.
Davis had an enormous usage this year at 31.6%, a number much greater than many of his contemporaries around the country. Whether that is the result of him preferring to play shoot-first, apologize-later basketball or Wisconsin needing him to carry the offense doesn’t matter a ton to me, he will not be asked (or allowed) to carry anywhere near that burden in the league and he should be better off for it.
There is a fine line shot makers like Davis need to walk as many of the shots they make are not typically viewed as “good shots” by the basketball public. I am comfortable with him choosing to operate out of the mid-range and find that skill-set to be particularly valuable in playoff basketball but properly utilizing it is a whole different can of worms. Every scorer has spots on the floor where they are most comfortable and Johnny is no different, but it would be good to see him recognize when he isn’t getting to his spot and pass out before attempting a heavily contested jumper.
A lot of his misses come from shots that you know aren’t going in as soon as he goes into his shot, he isn’t quite on balance enough or is further away from the hoop than usual. There is a big difference between getting to your spot and getting near your spot and the ability to recognize that difference more frequently would go a long way in trimming the fat from his shooting profile. When you are operating in the thinnest of margins as tough shot-makers tend to do every inch matters.
This over reliance on shot-making ties into concern surrounding his athleticism. That is a primary factor that is referenced when discussing worries about Davis’ role operating with the ball in the league. I think some of the concerns here are valid, he is not a particularly explosive athlete, but his strength and craft help make up for those shortcomings in a variety of ways.
As far the passing and creativity go, looking at raw statistical data to determine whether or not someone is a good passer is often a fools errand. The process and delivery are much more important than whether the teammate actually made the shot, particularly on a team that was as dependent on their star player as Wisconsin.
Watching the tape Davis passes the test with flying colors. He was aware where defenders were on the court and had flashes of vision and manipulation. Of course, there were some moments of tunnel vision, but the capability is obviously there. I would expect him to be a good passer at the next level with real room for improvement as the game continues to slow down for him.
I’m not saying he will be a heliocentric wing creator running an entire offense, but in my eyes the passing was much more of a positive than a negative. He understands the reads that are available to him in ball screens and has good accuracy with either hand. Once he is put into a role where he is not asked to shoulder a 30% usage, he should be able to settle into a role where he is able to make decisions that will help drive good offense. There may not be anything less indicative of a prospect’s ability than assist numbers and Davis is a shining example of that in this class.
I am slightly more worried about his actual creativity with the ball in his hands. He makes good reads passing the ball but doesn’t have much in terms of advanced dribble moves or shake with his handle. Everything revolves around an advantage being created for him via a mismatch or screen, it would be good to see him be able to string together moves in order to get off his own look. There is something to be said about keeping it simple, but when windows get smaller at the next level it will be progressively harder to create within his current construct.
Bits: Devin Booker, Derrick White, Kawhi Leonard
The Devin Booker comp is one of the most used in this entire draft cycle. The similarities are obviously there in how they operate out of ball screens and can operate as a secondary creator. They both will need a real PG next to them to help run the offense but fit in really nicely as a secondary option.
Booker was billed as a marksman enterning the draft but what interests me is what has happened since he entered the league. Booker is a career 36% shooter from distance and while some of that is due to the difficulty of his attempts, his career has played out in a way where he is viewed now as much more of a shot-maker than a pure shooter. Davis slides pretty comfortably into that first bucket and could continue to do so at the next level.
Davis is a markedly better defender at this stage in his career which should help him find the floor early on. I view his passing in a similar vein in that he isn’t making any incredible reads or forcing rotations with a lightning-fast first step but is more than capable as a secondary creator.
This was one I struggled to get on board with early in the cycle simply because the margins for this type of player are so thin, it is hard to expect anyone to reach the levels Booker has over the course of his career. I am not trying to say Davis is Booker 2.0, but the stylistic similarities are there. I think Booker is a wonderful test case for how valuable that type of player is in the league.
Derrick White is probably my favorite comp here. He is a better athlete than given credit for and despite less than stellar measurements can guard up the lineup in a variety of situations. In Kawhi’s first game back in San Antonio White was far and away the best option defending him, and he actually did a solid job. White was able to get underneath him, navigate screens and make it difficult for Kawhi to get to his spot. He’s stronger than his frame suggests in a similar way to Davis.
White’s best trait on offense is his savvy using ball-screens to create for himself and others. He has a crafty in-between game and I think White’s offensive profile is a good reference point when gauging Davis’ potential impact if the shot never truly comes around.
White was an incredible shooter in the bubble, but that development has yet to manifest itself outside of Orlando. He has struggled off the catch and off the dribble from distance but has remained a positive player for both San Antonio and Boston. Even if Davis never shoots I can see him having a similar impact playing tough defense and making smart plays on offense even if the scoring punch leaves you wanting a little more.
I’ll finish here on Kawhi Leonard. Put your pitchforks away, I am not comparing Davis’ potential impact to Kawhi. As it turns out, 3 inches of height and 6 inches of wingspan makes a pretty big difference.
What made Kawhi such an interesting developmental test case was his combination of shot-making instincts combined with a baseline set of skills that guaranteed him NBA minutes early on. Once he figured out the hitch in his shot the Spurs were essentially unable to keep him off the floor. His combination of spot up shooting, defensive versatility and ancillary skills offensively made him an easy addition to any lineup.
I think Davis has a similar profile of skills. His ability to hit open shots, make the right play and defend should get him minutes immediately in the NBA. That early playtime is incredibly valuable in development and the ability to effectively scale down should allow him to grow into a larger role organically. That slow growth is important, being put into an outsized role too early or just being unable to get on the court can be detrimental to a prospects confidence and how they are viewed throughout the league. In a race as long as an NBA career slow and steady wins out more often than not.
Fits: San Antonio, Sacramento, New Orleans
I am going to wax poetic here a little bit regarding the fit in San Antonio.
I have seen a huge push against his potential fit here and I am not sure I understand the reasoning. The arguments typically come down to the general idea that he would be unable to play off ball or is a poor fit next to Dejounte.
I strongly disagree with both points here. Davis didn’t play point guard at Wisconsin, and while he did have a ton of reps in the PnR they often came in a secondary action. He showed more than enough ability to attack closeouts, run DHOs, and make timely cuts to the basket off ball. The only thing hindering Davis from becoming an excellent off-ball player would be his spot up shooting, an area that is one of the easiest and most assured developments in the NBA.
Does he need to be able to shoot off movement at a 40% clip? Not at all. He just needs to shoot well enough to be guarded from the outside and force a decent closeout. There aren’t many developmental bets I feel more comfortable taking than that one for someone who has shown an ability to create off the dribble and hit 80% of his attempts from the line.
The fit with Dejounte is another area I think he is being underrated. I don’t think any Spurs fan is willing to say DJ is capable of being the alpha and omega of an offense. Even if he does continue to develop into a legitimate first option for SA moving forward (something I would love to see but wouldn’t necessarily project) he is going to need a creator or two next to him.
Keldon has suddenly and dramatically learned how to shoot off the catch, Devin has had exciting flashes from the perimeter and Primo is a mystery box of potential. All three of them are dependent players at this juncture and while there is some room for growth in all of them it was clear throughout the season the Spurs needed someone else to do something, anything with the ball in their hands.
This team doesn’t need shooting, they need creators that can actually open up a defense, they need people who can end a shooting slump by getting to the line. In short, they need play creators, not play finishers. While Davis isn’t the surest bet to be a creator at least he has a chance. Even if he doesn’t blossom into a real initiator Davis provides a defensive toughness and steady hand this team desperately needed at the end of games.
The fit in Sacramento is intriguing for much of the same reasons. They desperately need talent on the wing, particularly defensive talent, and he should be able to fit in immediately. I would be interested to see his paring with Sabonis, playing out of DHOs and getting him the ball in the post. His mature approach and effort defensively could go a long way for a team that has been lacking those two aspects of team building for a long time. The presence of Mitchell and Fox would allow him to grow slowly into a larger role offensively and take some of the pressure off. Overall, just a really nice fit I would love to see.
New Orleans is one that feels a little clunkier at face value. Their roster is deep with wing talent, but outside of Ingram and CJ not a ton of guys who can create their own shot from the perimeter. Plug Davis into the mix and he should fit nicely in lineups next to either creator, adding a defensive presence on the wing in a position of need. I loved their draft last year with Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones and they could continue to build out their versatile wing depth around Ingram and CJ (and Zion?) by taking Davis. Watching Jonas Valanciunas feast off easy buckets is just an added bonus.
Wits: What makes a good off-ball scorer in the NBA? How important is strength and effort defensively when compared to frame and athleticism? What skills are most valuable for role players in a playoff setting?
I entered my film deep dive on Davis looking for nits to pick. I knew him to be productive, but the statistical profile was worrisome throughout the season and every time I watched him during the year I couldn’t get past the misses. The archetype of an off-guard who can’t defend 1s, isn’t good enough to be a primary initiator and doesn’t efficiently space the floor is one I don’t find particularly appealing.
Within two games I found myself in an entirely different headspace, trying to talk myself down on a prospect I couldn’t love watching more. This profile took a little longer to come out simply because every time I sat down to write I couldn’t resist the urge to watch just one more game.
The guy just gets it. He plays hard, isn’t afraid of any moment, knows his limitations and kills you with a thousand cuts. A pull up jumper here, a corner kick there, a shoulder in the chest followed by an and-1 to finish it all off.
He’s a competitor and I couldn’t help but love it. Davis may not have the explosive athleticism that entices fans at the top of the draft, but he gets the job done. His strength plays a huge role in that, allowing him advantages other players his size and build don’t have.
The archetype here is pretty simple in my eyes. He’s a scalable wing that can provide positive impact in a variety of settings. He should be able to hit shots off the catch, can get to the rim, make the right reads and kill you in the mid-range. There aren’t a lot of glaring weaknesses here, but at the same time not a ton of shining strengths.
Playoff basketball is a place where weaknesses are eaten alive and I don’t foresee that happening to Davis. He is too strong, too smart and too resilient to be picked on in any one aspect.
I understand the doubts about the ultimate upside. The margins he operates in as a self-creator are incredibly thin, reliant on tough shots and advantage maximization rather than advantage creation.
I don’t know if he will reach the highs of an All-Star scorer in the league, but that doesn’t mean he will fail as a prospect if he doesn’t. He has all the tools to be a productive wing for a playoff team from day 1 with real, tangible upside to be something greater if he can make that ultimate leap as a space creator.
My biggest pet peeve in team building is this obsession with “3 and D” role players. It is not that simple, it’s not even close. When teams are locked in defensively the first thing they are going to be able to take away is open catch and shoot looks. You either must be an elite shooter impervious to contests or you need to be able to make something happen off the catch. If the Houston Rockets taught us anything it’s that relying on role players to make 3s in big moments is not a reliable recipe for success in May and June.
Davis should thrive as the weather gets hotter and the defensive temperature is turned up. A hard closeout isn’t going to stop him from making something happen, quite the contrary. Give him an advantage with an overzealous closeout or a big playing in a deep drop and he will bury you in a vacant lot six feet under.
Sometimes you just need a bucket however it comes, and there are few players in this class that can kill a scrambling defense like Johnny Davis.
All Box Score Stats provided by tankathon.com
Shot Distribution and Advanced Stats provided by barttorvik.com
Points Per Possession Stats and Percentiles provided by synergysportstech.com