Malaki Branham: Searching for the Light
When mid-range scoring does not mean space creation and the value of floor outcomes when swinging for the fences
Photo Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Malaki Branham - 19.1 - Freshman
Wing/Guard - Ohio State
Height: 6’5 - Weight: 185 - Wingspan: 6’10
Malaki Branham entered the year with little fanfare. As the season began he put together flashes here and there of some excellent off-ball shooting with a sprinkle of pick and roll creation but was unable to truly find his footing. That all changed as the calendar turned to 2022 and he put up 35 against Nebraska after a 3 week break in Ohio State’s schedule.
He would go on to put together an excellent second half of the season where he was, at times, the best Buckeye on the court. What spurred this breakout and how much of it is real? Join me as I dig in, searching for the light that has propelled him into top-10 consideration for this upcoming draft class. It may not be as clear as it seems.
Box Score Stats Pts/Reb/Ast - Stl/Blk/To - Fg/3p/Ft 13.7/3.6/2.0 - 0.7/0.3/1.7 - 50/41/83 Shot Distribution (% Assisted) Dunk - Rim - Mid - 3PT 12/13 - 57/79 - 66/153 - 37/90 92.3% - 72.2% - 43.1% - 41.1% (21.1) - (18.2) - (91.9) Advanced Stats USG/TS - AST/TO - 3PAr/FTr 23.4/59.4 - 14.7/15.1 - .277/.298 BLK/STL - OR/DR - OBPM/DBPM 01.0/01.6 - 03.5/10.5 - 04.6/00.4 Points Per Possession (Synergy %) PnR OBH - Spot Up O - Off Screen 1.044 (94) - 1.083 (82) - 0.774 (31) PnR DBH - Iso D - Spot Up D 0.739 (51) - 1.54 (9) - 0.94 (42)
Hits: Shooting Touch, Mid-Range Jumper, Pick and Roll Creation
Branham’s touch, simply put, is awesome. The ball is really soft coming out of his hand and he’s efficient from essentially everywhere on the floor. A 50/41/83 shooting split is stellar for anyone, much less a freshman in a Power 5 conference. Once you add in his 43.1% from the mid-range, 43.6% taking jumpers off the dribble and 47.6% on runners you have all the makings of a killer shot profile. There may not be another prospect in this class I trust more to make jumpers (non-Jabari Smith division).
He started the season relatively slowly but genuinely improved throughout the season. There is real room for growth, particularly stretching his pull-up game beyond the line, but as one of the younger players in the class Branham has a pretty long developmental runway.
A big part of the shooting profile is his work in the mid-range where Branham was excellent using screens to create an advantage and hunt his shot. He has a really high release on his jumper that allows him to elevate in traffic and shoot over defenders with ease. Even as his defensive match-ups level up next year he should still be able to get his shot off thanks to his sky-high release point. Actually getting to his spots is a different question I will touch on later, but his ability to hit shots once he get there should translate up.
He doesn’t have particularly impressive athleticism in his first step or vertical pop but that did not stop him from finishing over 70% of his looks at the rim. Those are DeAndre Jordan numbers. He did a lot of his damage in the paint out of the pick and roll where he was able to use screens effectively to get downhill. He was effective contorting his body to get clean looks and even had a few lefty posters during the year.
Branham’s craft finishing in the paint is what stands out most, he does a good job knowing his limitations and using his size and length to his advantage. Ohio State ran a screen and seal scheme that helped him avoid rim protectors as he drove into the paint but he showed good ability to finish even when they were there to contest.
I really enjoyed his persistence when looking for his shot in the mid-range, changing direction, re-using screens and taking advantage of his herky-jerky style to get good looks. He knows what he is good at and you could see his confidence growing as the year went on. He definitely had to work to create an advantage and it wasn’t always easy, but he was often steady composed probing the defense until he got a decent look.
Branham’s passing in the pick and roll is probably his best as a distributor. He did suffer with occasional bouts of tunnel vision but generally did a good job locating shooters on the perimeter and hitting the roll man when it was available. There aren’t a ton of “wow” moments but he largely gets the job done, making him one of the best pick and roll weapons in the entire country.
Overall his performance as a pick and roll operation was incredibly impressive for an 18 year old freshman. He finished in the 94th percentile scoring as a pick and roll ball handler and the tape checks out. Branham does a great job using his strength, unorthodox movement patterns and decisiveness to consistently get quality looks. When he is able to create an advantage from a scren his game opens up in a way you don’t see in other contexts.
Nits: Rim Pressure, Handle, Defensive Activity, Screen Navigation
My biggest offensive gripe when watching Branham would be the relative lack of rim pressure. He relied heavily on screens to get downhill and still settled for more mid-range jumpers than I would like. 79 attempts at the rim all season is not great for a prospect being billed as a scorer and it gives me real pause.
The first step isn’t particularly quick and he relies on the strength of his bumps to get where he needs to go. There were some flashes of crafty finishing throughout the year and I think he uses his body well, he just isn’t able to get there very often.
He only had 13 possessions in isolation this season, an admittedly small sample size, but the fact he recorded 0 attempts at the rim in those situations is a red flag. Looking at his possessions out of spot ups once he puts the ball on the floor he is 3x more likely to shoot a pull-up jumper than to get to the rim.
This need to settle for jumpers is indicative of a few different areas for growth with one in particular sticking out to me on tape. I didn’t trust his handle for someone that is billed as a bucket-getter. He doesn’t have the straight line speed to blow past guys so he has to rely more on strength and craft to win individual battles and on a whole I came away un-enthused by the results.
He has enough to get to his jumper but doesn’t have the confidence dribbling in a crowd or the strength to remain controlled when putting his shoulder into a (like-sized) defender that you need to be able to provide rim pressure as a ball handler. There were too many times he looked uncertain with his handle, un-steadied by a quick and physical defender at the point of attack.
It would help if he had an array of step-backs to help create space for his jumper, allowing him to get semi-contested looks from his stronger areas on the court but that wasn’t something I saw consistently. He didn’t have many moments hitting jumpers off negative momentum, seemingly everything came from stepping into his jumper rather than creating space via step-back or side-step.
That worked in college but I have a little hesitation about it being as effective in the pros. It will be harder to get to those shots without a viable threat of rim pressure, there will simply be less space in front of him if his man is able to crowd him consistently (particularly with longer and more athletic wing defenders in the league).
The defense was another area that left me feeling a little cold. There were moments guarding on the perimeter where Branham looked good moving his feet leveraging his size and length to contain ball handlers but in the macro I found it to be very hit or miss.
His screen navigation was a real struggle both on and off ball. He didn’t fare well getting skinny when fighting through screens guarding ball handlers. Off ball spent a lot of time trailing his man, at times from a pretty large distance, as they ran through different screen actions.
There is obviously a lot that is learned at the NBA level and defense is an area where almost any prospect has to grow in order to be truly impactful. I just fear the ground he has to cover is a little too large. The activity numbers aren’t there with low block and steal rates but what is more concerning, I just didn’t love the way he moved on the defensive end. He spent a lot of time flat footed or out of a play entirely. If he doesn’t reach a high end outcome as a scorer Branham is going to need to defend to get real minutes and that hill may prove to be a steep one to climb.
Bits: Khris Middleton, Tre Mann, Mikal Bridges
I hate comps. This is not a comp section. This is more of a way for me to try and look at a prospect from a different perspective in terms of how they will be used at the next level or areas that could require some growth. Just wanted to clarify that before getting into this bit because it was hard to come up with any names for Branham.
Middleton is an easy one that has been thrown around the draft twitter-verse recently. I can see Branham fitting into a similar archetype here as a player though the quality is hard to match. It’s important to remember Middleton reached a .1% outcome in terms of his development, expecting anyone to reach his levels as a shot-maker (particularly the level he reached in the 2021 playoffs) is setting yourself up for failure.
With that said, Branham shares some similarities in his mid-range heavy game with excellent shooting touch to boot. They can both be used on ball in spurts but are best when not taxed with primary initiation duties. Middleton is a solid, at times very good, defender with a scalable skill-set that can fit in almost any lineup that already has the necessary foundation for creation. Even an 80% Khris Middleton is a great player who can help every team and Branham could fit in that mold.
Tre Mann feels like a weird name to have here. I think it is an interesting thought experiment in that they were both 6’5 shot creators with a penchant for hitting pull up jumpers and operating out of screens as a ball-handler.
Mann’s skill-set translated better than expected his rookie season and a big part of that was the ability to create space for his jumper. Mann had one of the best handles in his class last year, routinely making the basketball look like a yo-yo in his hands.
Branham doesn’t have that level of a handle, it’s not particularly close. In an NBA context every inch matters and this is a part of his game I wish was more developed. If there was one skill I could take from another prospect and give to Branham this is probably it. A consistent ability to create space would make me much more confident projecting a higher usage role in the NBA for Branham.
Mikal Bridges is a name that popped into my head watching the tape mostly as a result of their build. I really do think Branham can play on the wing in the league, he has a good frame and long arms and just generally looks big out there. I see him much more on the wing end of the spectrum than as a guard.
Mikal has created an awesome niche for himself in the league as one of the best perimeter defenders in basketball, knockdown shooter and a capable tertiary creator. Offensively, I wonder if a similar role will be better suited for Branham than one laden with on-ball reps.
Bridges is able to attack closeouts to get to his pull up and operate out of the occasional pick and roll while having some tremendous touch shooting the ball. While Branham is much better out of the pick and roll at this stage of his career I am not sure how many reps he will end up demanding in the league due to the aforementioned limitations and the sheer depth of the talent pool.
If he is more of a complimentary scorer than an on-ball one the defense is going to need to take major strides. Without that I question the role he would play in a starting lineup surrounded by more talented offensive options. He’s really young and seems to have a good head on his shoulders. I think he will improve on that end once he gets into the league but the question is to what degree.
Fits: Cleveland, Milwaukee, Oklahoma City, Minnesota
The fit in Cleveland is a particularly clean one with the Cavs picking at the end of the lottery where I would start to give Branham a real look. He would be able to play off a good creator in Garland, next to Okoro to cover up some of the defensive shortcomings all while having Jarret Allen and Evan Mobley behind him to clean up any messes.
His spot-up shooting would provide some much needed spacing and he would have at least some opportunity to run pick and roll with bench units or in secondary actions. If he is able to do any creating off the dribble he could be a good replacement for Caris LeVert without all the ball stopping tendencies.
Milwaukee is picking much later in the 1st round but would be a nice fit nonetheless. He could plug in either learning behind Middleton or playing next to him to provide some additional (non-Grayson Allen) shooting.
Playing in a positive and structured defensive environment would be really beneficial for his development and the Bucks provide just that. An infusion of youth could go a long way and while Branham will play most of his rookie year at 19 he has the skill-set to provide helpful rotation minutes early off the bench.
Oklahoma City is a team in desperate need of real floor spacers and Branham would fit like a glove. While I wouldn’t have him 12th on my own personal board I wouldn’t have too many complaints with the Thunder taking him at that slot.
He would fit nicely next to SGA or Josh Giddey and provide the kind of killer shooter off the catch the Thunder really need. They could certainly use some more defensive talent and Branham wouldn’t necessarily help in that regard but the shooting from the wing in such a young prospect may be too good to pass up.
Minnesota is not a place I expected to provide a stable defensive environment when the year began but here we are. I liked the improvement the team made defensively this year; with guys like Ant, Jaden McDaniels, Jared Vanderbilt and Patrick Beverly surrounding him Branham could fit in well. He would be a nice future replacement for a guy like Malik Beasley and could grow alongside a young but talented core group that could really use another knock-down shooter on the wing.
Wits: How important is rim pressure for a wing scorer and how likely is it to improve in the league? How much can we reasonably expect defensive impact to improve when put into a positive developmental context? What is the ideal role for a player that is an average or below defender that isn’t an advantage creator? Am I overthinking this entirely?
Branham has been a really tough evaluation for me. I like his game a lot. I highly value pull-up shooting, positional size, situational passing and youth. Branham checks all of those boxes and his in-season improvement was more than noteworthy, it was incredibly impressive to see in real time.
You could tell he became more comfortable in his role and shot-making ability as the year went on; I would assume that improvement should continue into the league. 18 year olds who improve the way he did this year don’t typically stop improving. That is what gives me the most hesitancy in this evaluation. How much more comfortable is he going to get, and what does that look like on an NBA floor?
In the end I came away a little colder than I expected given all of the above. It isn’t that I don’t like Branham as a prospect, I just entered this deep dive with the hope of seeing enough to push him into the lottery and maybe even top 10 as many evaluators have done recently. I just couldn’t get there.
There is too much here that makes me nervous when it comes to his potential role in the league. He was a great finisher in college but did little to get there on his own. He ran pick and roll well but is he going to be good enough to demand those touches in a league filled with dynamic play-makers? I am not so certain. The bar here is incredibly high and without any real threat of rim pressure I struggle to see him earning a significant on-ball role in the league without hitting the upper bounds of his shot-making projection.
If he is forced off-ball he should thrive as a spot-up shooter but there is little in the way of perimeter relocation or instinctive cutting that encourage that outlook. He only had 16 possessions as a cutter this year, a concerning low number if you don’t buy the high leverage on-ball creation.
That isn’t accounting for the defensive struggles. I don’t think he is doomed defensively but I haven’t seen much to convince me he could be more than league average on that end of the floor with real, hunt-able downside.
What makes me sweat is he could very well end up becoming a top tier contested shot-maker out of the mid-range or pick and roll. In-season improvement like his is rare to come by and I am hesitant to overlook that. Putting the ball through the small orange hoop will always have tremendous value.
It would help if I could project him to provide any kind of positive defensive impact confidently. That feels like the biggest swing skill, not necessarily in terms of his ultimate ceiling but more-so his floor. If he can defend at an average level he is going to get minutes on any team he plays for and will provide real positive impact.
If he doesn’t, what does his role look like? How valuable is 3 and D without the D? I am not so sure. There is just a little too much that makes me nervous here to be confident betting on him in the lottery.
I’ll sum up my general thoughts here in the form of a limerick, because I’m a weirdo.
Will this 19 year old continue to grow? With handle and burst I struggle to know Will he pull-up from 3? Will he learn to play D? I may one day be forced to eat crow
I really like Branham as a prospect and genuinely hope he is able to develop into a Middleton-ian scorer in the league. That would be an amazing story and incredible player to root for an enjoyer of tough shot-making. Here’s to hoping this post ages like spilled milk. I’m sure crow would taste fine in a gumbo.
All Box Score Stats provided by tankathon.com
Shot Distribution and Advanced Stats provided by barttorvik.com
Points Per Possession Stats and Percentiles provided by synergysportstech.com