Why am I doing this?
Before delving into this 2022 NBA Draft class I figure it’s best to put forth some sort of expatiation of what exactly Prospecting Leads is, why I’m doing it and where it’s going from here.
I have been a San Antonio Spurs fan for most of my sentient life and the unfortunate exodus of Star talent from the roster via retirement, free agency, and the trade market has sent me down an NBA Draft rabbit hole of which I will never find my way out. The 2016 draft was the first draft cycle that truly caught my attention and there has been no turning back since.
I fall asleep at night shuffling my big board rather than counting sheep. I commute to work listening to music pairing prospects with songs. I rock my child to sleep at night debating how to properly value upside vs certainty on a big board. I lay in bed watching Big Ten games on mute in an attempt to hide this raging addiction from my sleeping wife. All in all just some truly deplorable behavior.
It has come to a point now where, despite the fear of public ridicule, I have no choice but to start writing if for nothing more than to have an outlet. Is this going to be a draft philosophy piece after 5 years of uninterrupted internal monologue? You’re damn right it is, but first, KAMAUU.
What is the goal of Prospecting Leads?
While I spend an enormous portion of my waking hours debating prospects and the value of certain skill-sets in my head, my intention is less to cram my beliefs down your throat but rather frame things in a way that causes you to look at prospects and their translation in a different light. I am not here to tout some revolutionary draft philosophy or provide hard-line rules for what makes a prospect, in fact I find those approaches are too often flawed, littered with arrogance and presumption. The NBA Draft community, both public and private, has yet to crack the code in any real sense. You are attempting to hit a moving target with different, unique variables presented in each specific draft class, failure is to be expected.
What I have found to be most helpful is not a rigid scouting philosophy but one that allows for the possibility of success or failure in ways distinctive to each prospect. Every player will succeed or fail due to their own unique combination of tools and there is no one way to predict them all. The scouting process is part evaluation and part projection, but the vast majority of draft misses fall on the projection side of that equation as it truly is an inexact science.
What do I value?
The draft cycle is little more than speculative trading, a point I think is incredibly important to keep in mind during the process of studying a class. Of course there are assets priced below their actual value, but that very value is also directly impacted by the context of the situation into which they are drafted. Any player regardless of their talent level will be impacted by their developmental staff, the players around them, and the way their skills are utilized in game. Every team is going to have a board specific to their preference and team construct with the singular goal of finding the best investment for their franchise. Team context will play a large role in every prospects development but there isn’t much of a way to predict their situation before the draft takes place, when big boards actually matter.
My goal is to find the absolute best asset possible, not to diversify the portfolio. To determine that actual value over the course of 7 years of team control you have to factor in market conditions for growth, and in the NBA there are 30 different potential markets. While I do heavily account for a players prospective fit in regards to roster (what kind of players do they need around them to succeed?), I try to avoid docking players that need a slightly longer developmental runway. There are certainly teams around the league that poorly develop players but they are not the norm and frankly, I really don’t care.
Projecting value accounting for the potential failures of an illogical 3rd party feels not only pointless but detrimental to the process. Are you drafting players under the assumption you would put them in a positive developmental system? Do you have confidence in your ability to do so? All 30 front offices in the league would answer yes to those questions (and if not, why are they even doing this?), so why are we not evaluating prospects under those very constructs? If a player fails to develop properly because they are not put into a positive situation is that reflective of their actual value as an asset or is it reflective of an organizational failure? I tend to fall on the side of the latter.
This belief is something that impacts my board throughout, but is particularly poignant higher in the draft. As we get into the late first and into the second round the quality of prospect tends to level out, the margins become slimmer, and ease of fit becomes more important. Teams just don’t have the same kind of investment in late first round picks; the later the draft goes the attractive gambles are taken off the board and finding someone who can actually play becomes more of a priority.
I still view each prospect with an emphasis on what I think they can become if properly developed, but later round picks tend to have more variance in outcomes even within that ideal team context; some guys just don’t have the tools, feel, touch, or drive to make it in the league. Scheme and roster scalability is a valuable asset in a prospect, I just believe the biggest and most painful misses come from allowing the difficulties of a player’s projection outweigh the potential impact when used properly.
If there is one thing I value above all else it would be a prospect’s history of improvement, particularly if it comes in season. The biggest differentiator between stars in the league and everyone else is work ethic and the ability to continue to improve their game year over year. Very few players come into the league ready to contribute to winning, much less drive it, so the ability and willingness to improve not only their strengths but relative weaknesses is of the utmost importance.
What’s next?
I will be posting player specific profiles throughout the pre-draft process containing a statistical profile, analysis of strengths, weaknesses and team fit. If there is one thing I can stress as a closing note, there is no big board you will see that is correct. Every single one is wrong, despite what their creator may have you believe. I’m not here to hedge my bets in fear of being wrong, I’m here to swing big and take the misses as they come. Learning from mistakes is the beauty of the process. I go my own way, and hopefully I can help you go your own way too.