Jeremy Sochan: Basketball in the Language of Jazz
The impact of effort and the mysterious case of shooting indicators
Credit Marvin Gentry - USA Today Sports
Jeremy Sochan - 19.1 - Fr
Forward - Baylor
Height: 6’9 - Wingspan: 7’1 - Weight: 230
Jeremy Sochan is a uniquely talented forward with a combination of incredibly high feel and a smash-mouth edge to his game that has resulted in winning basketball all season. While Kendall Brown, Matthew Mayer and Langston Love received much of the preseason hype it was Sochan who skyrocketed up boards as the year progressed. What are the limits to an upward growth trajectory for a player that feels the game in his bones like a jazz artist feels a melody? How far can grit and effort take a player with unrefined edges? We’ll explore all that and more, but first some Mick Jenkins to set the mood. Let’s dig in.
Box Score Stats Pts/Reb/Ast - Stl/Blk/To - Fg/3p/Ft 9.2/6.4/1.8 - 1.3/0.7/1.6 - 47/30/59 Shot Distribution (% Assisted) Dunk - Rim - Mid - 3PT 15/20 - 51/68 - 25/62 - 24/81 75.0% - 75.0% - 40.3% - 29.6% (60.8) - (40.0) - (95.8) Advanced Stats USG/TS - AST/TO - 3PAr/FTr 20.0/54.6 - 12.3/18.1 - .384/.427 BLK/STL - OR/DR - OBPM/DBPM 03.2/02.9 - 08.9/20.6 - 03.3/03.7 Points Per Possession (Synergy %) PnRoller O - C&S J - Cutter 1.080 (60) - 0.907 (47) - 1.517 (93) PnR BH D - Spot Up D - Iso D 0.724 (54) - 0.640 (91) - 0.625 (69)
Hits: Defensive Awareness, Cutting, Motor
There are few defensive prospects in this class with the upside of Jeremy Sochan. Grading out in the 91st percentile in all defensive possessions he has no real weakness on that end of the floor. There is a general worry over his overall athletic profile but I think at least some of that comes from playing next to a literal human pogo-stick in Kendall Brown. He doesn’t fly off the ground the way Brown does but is more than capable of containing his man on the perimeter, contesting at the rim or stunting and recovering in help defense.
Defending jumpers in the half court Sochan is only surrendering 0.643PPP (93%) with opponents shooting a ludicrous 22.6% from the field, a number so insane it feels fake. While is the general consensus is that FG% on jumpers is more informative of the shooter than the defender, what impressed me about Sochan is where he allowed opponents to take shots. He isn’t isn’t quick enough to consistently prevent penetration but when he does get beat he is great steering drivers into help and recovering to contest shots.
The motor on Sochan really never stops running. He is constantly making rotations to defend shots at the rim or muck up driving lanes for ball handlers. So much of NBA defense is about hustle and desire, with Sochan you have a player who consistently wins in the margins.
When he is surrounded with other athletic defenders he has a knack for catalyzing defensive effort in a way few others can, resulting in some pretty incredible defensive play throughout the season. He can get beat occasionally by shiftier guards but overall shows well when put on an island and is big enough to bang inside for stretches. While I would prefer my defensive ace to be a little more explosive athletically his rotational awareness and timing contesting shots more than makes up for any deficiencies he has guarding on-ball or in primary rim protection.
He is a great mover off-ball both as a cutter and filling into open space on the perimeter, moving in tune with the rest of his team. It wasn’t perfect, but his feel for the rhythm of the game was impressive; he is much more confident playing as part of an ensemble than most freshmen.
The finishing touch around the rim is good converting over 67% of his looks in the half court and he flashed some ability to get there off the bounce as the season went on. Once JTT went down during the year Scott Drew leaned into playing Sochan at the 5 where he showed a real ability to attack mismatches against slower bigs. He was consistently able to pressure the rim against Kansas in their second matchup and that ability to attack mismatches is particularly encouraging.
While the opportunities weren’t always there I really enjoyed his flashes as a passer this season as well. He does a good job making connective passes within the offense and showed some impressive dump-offs down low. There isn’t anything flashy to his passing, but the easy with which the offense finds it’s groove when he’s out there is apparent.
He can be a step slow to make passes at time times but as an 18 year old in the Big 12 he represented himself well. The youth and defensive awareness point towards true growth potential here despite his relative lack of opportunity at Baylor.
Nits: Jump Shooting, Self Creation, Primary Rim Protection
The shooting is far and away the biggest question, prospects who shoot below 30% from three and 60% from the line don’t often become plus shooters in the league. While the numbers are pretty ugly his performance as the season went on has left me less pessimistic than I expected.
To get a clearer picture on a prospect’s shooting projection I typically look to FT%, mid-range jumpers, 3 point attempt rate, touch around the rim and general jump shot mechanics. With Sochan this results in a pretty complicated collection of inputs. The FT% is really poor, he had some flashes of mid-range touch but on very low volume and he was able to get up 3’s at a decent rate despite his struggles putting the ball through the hoop. That paints a pretty blurry picture with no real direction and when you look further into his shooting mechanics it gets even wonkier.
At the beginning of the season his release appeared strained with the ball out in front of his face, rarely looking smooth coming off his hand. I left games early in the year seriously doubting the shot’s translation at the next level with difficulty believing he would be capable of getting them off from the deeper NBA line against better defenders. It didn’t help that his release from the line looked significantly worse than off the catch.
As the year went on the jumper seemed to smooth out a little and it appeared easier for him to get them up. As his role in the offense increased he started showing flashes of mid-range scoring and touch around the rim. At the same time, his numbers from 3 stayed below 30%. What’s worse, he banked in multiple 3’s this year and with only 81 attempts those couple of banks are keeping the numbers from looking truly ghastly.
Shooting 43% on all jumpers inside the arc is moderately encouraging but the volume is so low (23 attempts) the actual % is meaningless. The comfort he showed taking them, especially as the year went on, is much more encouraging. The time horizon on the shooting is certainly a long one (he is not someone I would expect to come in and convert even open Catch and Shoot looks at a high level his rookie year) but the path to league average is not as tenuous as the numbers may suggest.
Every player in the league can drill shots in practice, instilling them with the confidence to take them in games is one of the most difficult aspects of development. Getting shots up is an enormous aspect of improvement and throughout the year Sochan proved he is willing to take shots in the biggest moments of games. When it comes to shooting projection for a player with rough numbers there is not much I’d rather bet on than confidence and work ethic. By all accounts Sochan checks both of those boxes.
This ties in to his weaknesses creating shots for himself as well. He does not have the best first step and didn’t show off your typical bag of dribble moves but there is an unorthodox confidence to his game that shines through even in some pretty dark moments. He can struggle to get by other athletic wings and doesn’t have a ton of consistency shooting off the bounce.
The numbers are certainly subpar and he isn’t someone I would assume will make an enormously meaningful leap in this regard, but his flashes throughout the year throw a bit of a monkey wrench into that equation. He hit a couple turnaround jumpers in the mid-range that look like pro moves and he flashed some dribble creation playing at youth levels and abroad while showing real improvement throughout the year. Again, the numbers aren’t good, but there is more reason to be bullish that I anticipated.
Fits: San Antonio, Minnesota, Golden State, Atlanta
Sochan is easily one of my favorite projects for my beloved Spurs this year. He fills an enormous need for intelligent defense at the 4, wouldn’t rushed into a role in which he is ill-prepared to fill and has the youth/frame/touch to denote real untapped potential. Paired with an elite shooting coach in Chip Engeland I can’t imagine a place more suited to put Sochan in an ideal developmental context.
The fit in Minnesota is great for much of the same reasons. An innovative coach, a budding perimeter star in Ant, an elite stretch big like KAT and a desperate need for a steady hand defensively make him an ideal fit.
He would be fantastic in both Atlanta and Golden State as well with star point guards to help feed him easy looks. In reality, I would like Sochan pretty much anywhere. He has an incredibly scalable skillset that fits in almost any context; if you believe in the shooting projection I can’t think of many players he wouldn’t be able to play with.
Wits: How should you value a prospect with a high floor and uncertain ceiling? What level of shooting development is reasonable to predict for someone who has never actually shot well? Does a growth curve look more exponential in prospects with elite feel compared to prospects with elite physical tools?
It is hard to confidently bet someone who has shown little shooting touch will be able to get his own at the next level, but teams are fixing mechanics quicker and more effectively than ever before. Half of the battle is the player having the right mindset to accept these improvements and capitalize on them. I wouldn’t say Sochan developing into a league average shooter is certain but there are so many ancillary skills his projection isn’t dependent greatly improving his shot.
He will help any team he is on with smart team defense, connective passing and non-stop hustle. With his size and effort he is able to be impactful on the offensive and defensive glass, offering versatility as teams trend towards smaller lineups. He should fair well playing next to real guards who can get him the ball in more advantageous situations than he saw at Baylor and nearly every team will provide that.
What really intrigues me are the flashes of passing off the dribble, tough shot making and defensive intensity. While assuredly not a perfect bet to be a wing creator at the next level, there is enough to make me confident he will be more than just a 3&D forward. To really thrive at the next level you have to be able to not only force a close out but take advantage of an overzealous one and Sochan is uniquely built to do so if the shot ever comes around. He isn’t the most explosive but there is a real shake to his game off the dribble that leaves me wanting to see more.
Baylor was far from an ideal offensive situation for him with so much flowing through their shoot-first combo guards but he was still able to make the most of his opportunities. What happens if he is given the reigns to run the PnR in the G-League? What happens if he is asked to shoulder more of an offensive load in the half-court creating shots for himself and others? What happens if he is used as a role man with a true point guard? There will certainly be growing pains, especially if the shot is slow to come around, but the raw materials are there for the exact player every playoff team is looking for; someone who brings value in both team and individual defense while being able to make decisions against against a rotating defense on the offensive end.
Every team needs a straw to stir the drink and Sochan will almost certainly not be that, but he projects to be one of the safest bets in this class to thrive next to one. While the Jae Crowder’s and PJ Tucker’s of the world are valuable they are inherently limited in what the can provide in a playoff setting. Spot up shooting only can only take you so far if you can’t punish defenses off the dribble. So why do they keep finding their way onto title contenders? Because players with the ability to defend both forward spots and provide anything offensively are incredibly hard to find.
Sochan is more than that, he has better feel for the game and more creativity off the bounce, the question is how much more? Scouts often place false ceilings on players due to a limited role in college, athleticism concerns or poor shooting numbers and I think Sochan will be one such example this year. He has everything you can’t teach in feel, motor, frame, confidence and self-awareness while his one true weakness, the shot, is probably the most consistently developed skill in the modern NBA. If that is the case he will become a truly versatile offensive weapon, and paired with his defense there isn’t much stopping him from playing heavy minutes on any team around the league.
This projection is so exciting not because it is a world beating offensive player but because anything provided offensively is truly icing on the cake. Sochan is going to be a stellar defender at the next level in a variety of situations. He can be used to defend wings or bigs, can switch in a pinch and play excellent team defense. While not the biggest or fastest guy on the court he seems to always be in the right place to make things difficult. As we saw in the UNC game when the temperature gets turned up and the team needs a stop Sochan can suck the air straight out of an offense, trapping ball-handlers and flying around the court to contest shots. He moves within a defense like a jazz musician playing improv, always finding the right gaps to fill. To find that in an 18 year old freshman is incredibly rare. Oftentimes the bet on an intriguing outlier was the one worth taking all along.
All Box Score Stats provided by tankathon.com
Shot Distribution and Advanced Stats provided by barttorvik.com
Points Per Possession Stats and Percentiles provided by synergysportstech.com
Image from https://247sports.com/player/jeremy-sochan-46094089/