Kendall Brown: What Got You Shook?
When style doesn't meet substance and the desire to gamble on age, size, athleticism and feel
Kendall Brown - 19.1 - Fr
Forward - Baylor
Height: 6’8 - Wingspan: 6’11 - Weight: 215
Kendall Brown is one of if not the best all-around athletes in the 2022 class. Whether it is his straight-line speed in transition, vertical pop finishing around the basket, or explosion out of a first step Brown’s athleticism flashes all over the court. While not the most statistically productive prospect there is much more to his game than simple run and jump athleticism. I will end up unreasonably high on Kendall this cycle, he is the perfect combination of my scouting vices and I simply cannot help myself. Could this look silly in a few years? Absolutely. Will my opinion differ from many of the evaluators I respect most? Certainly. Will I besmirch the name of my favorite coach in college basketball? Quite possibly! Without any further ado let’s kick things off with the carefully selected theme song for the post and dive in.
Box Score Stats Pts/Reb/Ast - Stl/Blk/To - Fg/3p/Ft 09.7/4.9/1.9 - 1.0/0.4/1.7 - 58/34/69 Shot Distribution (% Assisted) Dunk - Rim - Mid - 3PT 43/46 - 99/130 - 19/55 - 14/41 93.5 % - 76.2% - 34.5% - 34.1% (63.6) - (36.8) - (85.7) Advanced Stats USG/TS - AST/TO - 3PAr/FTr 17.5/63.0 - 12.3/21.0 - .181/.327 BLK/STL - OR/DR - OBPM/DBPM 01.5/02.2 - 7.3/13.7 - 03.4/03.0 Points Per Possession (Synergy %) Transition - Cutter - Driver 1.241 (82) - 1.533 (94) - 1.494 (96) PnR DBH - Iso D - Open C&S 0.587 (81) - 0.545 (80) - 1.154 (58)
Hits: Athleticism, Finishing Touch, Cutting, Passing, Defensive Versatility
As I said at the top the athleticism flashes in nearly any way you can image. Where this will help him most early in his career is in transition. Baylor was not a team that liked to run particularly often, but any game you turn on you will see Brown first down the court to begin nearly every offensive possession. It almost seems like he can’t help it, he rarely looks to be at full speed but ends up ahead of the pack anyway. With his combination of touch around the rim and the ability to grab-and-go all the ingredients are there for a true weapon in transition. If drafted by at team looking to push the pace he should have an impact earlier in his career than it would seem given his raw skill-set.
While the athleticism is incredibly impressive it is his finishing touch around the rim that most excites me. His burst and leaping ability allow for some easier finishes, but when driving into a crowded paint Brown showed a real ability to finish around defenders. It isn’t just that he can hang in the air and find ways around defenders, he consistently converts on some really difficult attempts and his flashes of a floater in the mid-range are especially encouraging. Shooting north of 70% around the rim is great for a big man, much less a 6’8 slashing wing.
The finishing skill is supplemented by his impressive timing as a cutter in the half court. The suddenness of his first step does him lots of favors here as he is able to lose a defender at the drop of a hat. He has a very good feel for finding open seams in the defense, though Baylor did not have ideal personnel for taking advantage of that skill. He only had 60 possessions as a cutter but converted 79.2% of his attempts. There were opportunities left on the table here do to limited distributors at the guard spots, I for one would be thrilled to see him next to a high-level play-maker at the next level.
That same feel for the game can be seen in Brown’s game distributing the ball as well. With a knack for finding hitting dump off passes down low and finding shooters in a variety of settings his feel for distributing the ball is much greater than his raw assist numbers would suggest. While not the most talented individual scorer he is able to leverage his athleticism to create opportunities for others that buoy his offensive production. Most of this passing skill is used as a connector piece off the ball, but he showed a real ability to make live-dribble reads when given the opportunity.
As a PnR ball handler Brown only generated .571PPP (21%) as a scorer but 1.24PPP (92%) as a passer. His handle is compact and with the help of a ball screen he is able to get downhill and use that advantage to create high quality looks for his teammates. Some of the reads he made throughout the season were really impressive and are indicative of untapped potential in his game. He simply had very little opportunity at these reps with a crowded group of creators at Baylor, but a team with a long term plan for Brown could reap the benefits of exposing him to these kinds of reps early in his career.
On the defensive end his versatility should translate well to the next level. His speed and lateral quickness allow him to guard up and down the lineup and with his help-side rim protection he should be able to be used in a variety of defensive roles. I was really impressed by his on-ball defense throughout the year where he was able to move his feet and get physical with ball-handlers, forcing difficult shots from all kinds of player types. He allowed .545PPP (80%) in isolation situations and .587(81%) guarding PnR ball handlers and that is a role I could see him playing at the next level. I wouldn’t have him guard point of attack every possession down the court, particularly against smaller guards, but he should be able to hold his own in switches and give real problems to bigger wing creators. With some solid moments as a rim protector sprinkled into his tape he can provide positive defensive impact in a variety of ways. He is not the most polished defensive prospect as I will discuss later but the physical tools, feel and desire are there for him to be an impactful defender with time.
Nits: Shooting Confidence, Defensive Consistency, Self Creation
Brown’s shot is the most commonly referenced concern among draft pundits and for good reason. He showed a real hesitation to take jumpers this year that stick out like a sore thumb, he simply passed up too many open looks to provide any real gravity from the perimeter. Teams were content with letting him shoot and very rarely was he able to make them pay. I don’t love his mechanics, particularly at the top of his release, but by no means does it appear broken. A 3-point attempt rate of .181 is remarkably low and shows just how little confidence he had shooting from any distance throughout the year. Brown shot a brutal 26.3% on all jumpers throughout the season, but what is more concerning is the fact he only took 57 all year. You can’t improve as a shooter if you never take them in game and he will have to make some pretty large strides in that department before he can be considered anything close to a threat from the perimiter. While there is a long way to go towards him being able to shoot it at a consistent level but his finishing around the rim and with the floater give me real hope he will figure it out in the league. Prospects with solid touch tend to figure out how to shoot in the league and Brown showed some truly great flashes there throughout the entire season.
He may have all the physical tools you look for in a dominant wing defender but he did not consistently utilize those gifts game to game. Baylor plays a no-middle defense that is incredibly reliant on its wings to provide help on drives and while Brown did have some good moments in help he gave up a lot of easy looks on back-cuts. He played his entire freshman year at 18 so growing pains are to be expected, particularly in a defensive system as taxing as Baylor’s, but its worth noting he will need to make improvements here before any coach in the league will feel comfortable trusting him with big minutes.
I fully expect that development to come, he’s young, has a good feel for the game and has athleticism out the wazoo, those guys tend to figure it out. What is more concerning for me was the inconsistent impact and physicality between games and even between possessions. He has a good motor and seems to be trying out more often than not, but you just don’t feel his effect on the game possession to possession like you would with his teammate Jeremy Sochan. There is a lack of physicality attacking the glass and contesting shots that I just can’t quite get a handle on given how physical he is on the perimeter. Could it be a result of needing to add strength to his frame? Potentially. Could it be indicative of a larger mentality problem that could haunt him well after he is able to gain weight? Quite possibly. One is obviously more detrimental than the other and it will be up to teams to decide which it is and how improvable it is. There are moments in his tape that remind me of Luka Samanic in this regard and as a Spurs fan that gives me the shakes.
His ability to score for himself is another area that many people point to when lowering Brown down their boards and one that is apparent in his tape. He doesn’t love finishing through contact and has a pretty limited bag of moves to get his own look. To me, these concerns tend to fall on relatively deaf ears. He’s a hyper athletic 18 year old with a solid handle and an incredible first step. I wouldn’t expect him to be drilling contested mid-range jumpers in the league but I also wouldn’t be asking him to do so. There are plenty of ways for him to score in the half-court outside of creating his own shot off the dribble and with added strength he should be able to improve finishing through contact. It isn’t like he is incapable of doing so currently, he is just a little hesitant, something that is pretty understandable given how much lighter he is than rim protectors like David McCormack in the Big 12.
Bits: Aaron Gordon, Derrick Jones Jr, Luka Samanic
It was a little difficult to come up with comps in this section as vary rarely do we see prospects with this kind of vertical and horizontal athleticism enter the league.
Aaron Gordon is an interesting one when looking at the roles he has played as a pro. In Orlando he was tasked with creating much more of his own offense than he was capable of and it dramatically impacted his efficiency and how he was viewed around the league. There were some really interesting flashes of live dribble passing, particularly out of the PnR, but the jumper was never consistent enough to be threatening and he ended up becoming more of an anchor on the Magic’s offense than a buoy.
Fast forward to his fit in Denver and his impact looks entirely different. The ability to play off a real creator allowed him to slide into a much more limited offensive role that resulted in him being a positive contributor to a winning team. The efficiency from the perimeter isn’t incredible but replacing dribble jumpers with off-ball cuts has made him a positive offensive player. Defensively Brown and Gordon project to a similar role as well with a real knack for getting up into ball-handlers while providing a modicum of help rim defense. Gordon is and was stronger physically but the overall package of skill and athleticism are pretty similar.
Derrick Jones Jr is a fun comp as he entered the league relatively unheralded and has worked his way into a rotation. The frame and athleticism is similar to Brown though I do think Kendall has a little more room to fill out. DJJ’s role in Chicago is a lot what I would imagine Kendall will look like early on in the league, an energy wing who can jump out the gym and hang guarding anyone 1-4. Brown will need to crank his motor up a few levels to reach Jones’ level but I don’t find that to be an unrealistic early outcome.
Finally we get to Luka Samanic who represents most of the negative potential outcomes I see with Brown. Both are forward sized players with the foundations of an effective handle, jump shot questions and real athleticism. Watching Luka the first two years of the career it always felt like he was on the cusp of putting things together but there was a timidness to his game that never sat right which ended up being his ultimate downfall as a Spur. Sometimes there are mental hurdles you can’t overcome and if there is one thing I am worried about with Brown it is that possibility.
Fits: San Antonio, Houston, Indiana, Dallas
If you are sensing a trend in this section you are correct. There is nothing I want more as a Spurs fan than a forward sized player with ball skills and defensive potential and Brown checks both boxes. I would trust Chip Engelland to turn him into a functional shooter, he would be great running the floor with Dejounte and would offer some much needed perimiter defense at the 4 spot.
The fit in Houston is exciting just in thinking about Jalen Green and Kendall Brown being on the same team. They would make for an awesome athletic pairing that would be putting up highlights in transition for years to come. Playing off a smart passer in Sengun would help his development as well.
Another team that needs help on the wings, Indiana is a good blend of need and roster fit. Tyrese Halibutron would have no problems hitting Brown on cuts to the basket and playing with a spacing 5 like Miles Turner would help a ton in creating easier looks at the rim.
For a Baylor prospect it only felt right to highlight all 3 Texas teams here. Brown would fit well playing with Luka or Jalen Brunson while providing some on-ball perimeter defense and vertical spacing on offense.
Wits: How far can good touch take you as a shooter? What mental aspects of the game are easiest to teach? How would he be viewed if put into a role that was more conducive with his existing skills?
Let me start off by saying I think Scott Drew is an excellent coach. He has engineered the largest turnaround in the history of college basketball (for the uninitiated check out this story on the scandal that proceeded Drew’s time in Waco).
With that said, there are so many things I’d rather do different when it came to how Brown was utilized this season. If there are two skills that truly stood out this season it would be his athleticism and passing. From that you would assume Brown was utilized heavily as a roll man that gives ball handlers an excellent lob threat while having the ability to hit cutters and shooters in the short roll. You may be surprised to hear that Kendall Brown finished only 2 (!!!) possessions as a role man all year per Synergy’s play-tracking. That is unfathomable to me, only 2! He should be used there much more frequently in the NBA even though he is far from the best screener in the world (and man does he slip a lot of screens).
Draymond Green helped open the eyes of many to the value of short roll passing and Brown should thrive there in the league. His feel for passing is special for a prospect of his size and athleticism and I think it will provide a much higher floor than he is billed to be as a prospect. Offenses will run more smoothly with Brown out there even if he doesn’t become a shooter. The importance of “connector pieces” is commonly talked about and he fits that mold to a T. Unselfish (to an extreme at certain points) with a penchant posters he is the kind of player I am naturally drawn to.
The passing he showed out of the PnR this season was impressive to the point that if he ever figures out how to score for himself he could actually initiate offense at the next level. Now that is an incredibly high-percentile outcome that would take significant improvements in his handle and scoring but if that actually happens he has all the ancillary skills to be special. I feel insane even writing this because of how low people tend to be on him but I am going down with the ship at this point.
The defense has a chance to be really good and I think the hubbub surrounding his team defense is a little overstated. He improved there as the year went on and Baylor’s defense is just naturally going to give up back-cuts. He won’t be in the same scheme at the pro level and will play his entire rookie season at 19. That’s an area of growth I am confident betting on improving.
Players like this simply do not grow on trees and while there is considerable downside the outcomes where he really hits are just too inciting. Now I am obviously not betting my job on him reaching these high end outcomes, that would have me waking up in a cold sweat, but I do think the upside here is worth betting on. Sometimes you just have to hold your breath and jump in and Kendall Brown is that prospect in this class. What got you shook?
All Box Score Stats provided by tankathon.com
Shot Distribution and Advanced Stats provided by barttorvik.com
Points Per Possession Stats and Percentiles provided by synergysportstech.com