Trevor Keels: Simple as That
The uncertain value of guard defense and the benefits of role certainty
Photo Credit: Grant Halverson/Getty Images
Trevor Keels - 18.8 - Fr
Guard/Wing - Duke
Height: 6’4 - Weight: 221 - Wingspan: 6’7
The strengths for Keels, perhaps more than any other prospect in this class, are perfectly aligned with his future role in the NBA. If you are not a lead guard who can initiate offense consistently at the next level there are 3 primary things nearly any NBA team will ask of you. The first, and potentially most concerning for Keels, is effectively space the floor, followed shortly by defend opposing lead guards and operate as a secondary creator in the half court. One of the youngest prospects in the class with an easily project-able role, sometimes it’s easier to overthink things when the answer is right in front of you. Keels. Cudi. Let’s do this.
Box Score Stats
Pts/Reb/Ast - Stl/Blk/To - Fg/3p/Ft
11.5/3.4/2.7 - 1.2/0.1/1.3 - 42/31/67
Shot Distribution (% Assisted)
Dunk - Rim - Mid - 3PT
2/2 - 68/111 - 25/67 - 54/173
100% - 61.3% - 37.3% - 31.2%
(41.2) - (08.0) - (90.7)
Advanced Stats
USG/TS - AST/TO - 3PAr/FTr
20.1/52.0 - 14.6/12.1 - .493/.276
BLK/STL - OR/DR - OBPM/DBPM
00.2/02.3 - 03.3/09.0 - 02.8/00.7
Points Per Possession (Synergy %)
PnR OBH - Transition - Spot Up
1.171 (96) - 1.167 (74) - 0.795 (32)
PnR DBH - Drives D - Jumper D
0.583 (81) - 0.542 (97) - 0.977 (37)Hits: Point of Attack Defense, PnR Creation, Strength, 3-Point Attempt Rate
I’ll start with the point of attack defense. His ability to defend ball handlers and guards running through screens off ball was truly impressive this season. He isn’t the longest player but is able to crowd dribblers, slide his feet well and has a knack for navigating screens despite his bulky frame. Speaking of the frame, he is built like a brick shithouse. He rarely gets bumped off his spots and it allows him to really frustrate drivers into taking tough shots.
Defending drives from the perimeter is a collection of small battles. There are battles in screen navigation and preventing penetration where Keels is often successful, but there are few guards who win battles at the point of contact like Keels. If he can slide with a ballhandler you may have a better chance at moving a combat tank than going through his chest. He is strong as hell with a low center of gravity, it doesn’t matter if you are a big-bodied wing or forward, going through him is not an option.
With modern day giant behind him in Mark Williams he was able to effectively funnel drives into help which resulted in some outstanding results in his synergy numbers. Giving up only .542PPP on drives to the basket and .583PPP in the PnR Keels displayed a savvy for defense you rarely see in 18-year-olds.
His defense off-ball is not as flashy as bigger wings making an impact with digs and jumping passing lanes, but his screen navigation chasing shooters was, at times, very impressive. He has the desire and motor to blow up hand-offs and contest shooters on the move that showed itself throughout the year. As one of the youngest players in the draft I would expect him to continue to improve into a very good guard defender at the next level which should help him find minutes on almost any roster.
His secondary creation in the PnR was another bright spot this season. Despite his struggles to actually put the ball through the hoop he was efficient creating offense out of ball screens. 1.171PPP when including passes is an impressive number and his success here should help him slide into a role in the league with ease.
He isn’t someone you want initiating offense every time down the court as he can struggle to finish around the rim due to his limited vertical explosion and wasn’t particularly effective shooting off the dribble in the mid-range (though 37% with only 8% being assisted isn’t terrible). Despite his limitations he was a steady hand throughout the year and made good reads out of ball screens, on drives and in transition when given the opportunity. With an AST/TO greater than 2 he showed an ability to take care of the ball that is impressive for a freshman. Â
While not the bounciest athlete Keels had some fun moments this year attacking the basket and using his strength to finish through contact and open up lanes to the hoop. He has better craft at the rim than I expected going into the season, but he is more reliant on that than you would hope. Overall, I don’t think he will be an incredible finisher around the rim but his ability to use his body to get his shot off is encouraging. I am more comfortable betting on a player that is comfortable playing through contact improving than one that is allergic to it. There is real craft there too, he knows his limitations and finds ways around them. He very well could end up a good finisher in the league, it is just a little hard to imagine what that looks like.Â
The above points may not end up mattering if Keels isn’t able to shoot the ball at the next level. The results simply weren’t there this season shooting 31% from three and 61% from the line but at least he was confident taking shots. Maybe too confident at times. He was billed as a shooter/tough shot-maker coming into his freshman year and you can tell that is the way he prefers to play.
The confidence to take 3’s is a huge part of development and there certainly shouldn’t be much hesitation from Keels to get them up in the league. It really just comes down to whether or not you think he will start making them, and in my eyes, there isn’t anything particularly worrisome about the mechanics or touch. He isn’t elite in either regard, but there isn’t anything I see that would be a limiting factor in terms of potential improvement.
Nits: Vertical Athleticism, Length, Scoring Efficiency
The biggest areas for concern for me lie in Keels’ physical profile. He has very limited bounce and can struggle to finish in traffic as evidenced by only having 2 dunks on the entire season. That is an enormous difference from someone like Bennedict Mathurin and is a big reason why I have Keels in a tier or two below.
He is strong as hell and had some good moments using his strength and craft around the rim, but he just doesn’t have the physical profile to do that consistently at the next level. I don’t see how he improves enough here where it drastically changes his projection, but thankfully the role he would be projected to play isn’t going to be heavily dependent on finishing in a crowd.
The length plays a factor in his rim finishing as well as he is shorter with an average wingspan. He doesn’t have access to the same extension finishes other prospects do and it requires him to get more creative, or in the more concerning cases, rejected. The length really sticks out when trying to guard taller shot creators and, in my projection, will limit his potential versatility at the next level.
He can use his strength to get under guys and make life difficult off the dribble, but the league is full of wings who will just rise up and drill shots in your face if you don’t have the length to make an impactful contest. It lowers his ceiling a bit in terms of how he can be used on that end of the court, but I don’t think it will be particularly detrimental guarding 1s and 2s, and he should be able to guard smaller/lower skill level 3s with ease. Â
The efficiency is the biggest red flag in the statistical profile. If he is going to be a low usage off-guard in the league, Keels is going to need to be relied on to hit shots at an above average clip and he just isn’t there right now. He shot 30% on C&S situations in the half court and that number is going to have to be a lot closer to 40% for him to really hit in the league.
I think he will get to league average, but growth past there is a little murkier. Thankfully defenses tend to defend guys that are confident taking them, so even if the efficiency never comes around, he should be guarded enough to positively impact his team’s offense. If he can end up hitting shots in the league, there isn’t much of a reason to think he won’t find a role starting next to an initiating lead-guard.
Do I think he can be a real shot creator at the next level? I don’t know, probably not, but man are the flashes fun. There is a lot to be worried about in his statistical profile but when he is making shots there aren’t many prospects I enjoyed watching more. I hope he figures it out.
Bits: Avery Bradley, Lu Dort, Bryn Forbes
Finding pro comps for someone like Trevor Keels is relatively difficult given his physical and athletic profile don’t make a ton of sense. He is quick on his feet and able to navigate screens a perimeter defensive stopper, but most of those guys in the league have good vertical athleticism and a longer wingspan.
Avery Bradley is one that stuck out, particularly from a role and size perspective. Bradley is lighter than Keels but played with above average strength and has been great at pressuring up on the ball and making life difficult for point guards his entire career. There was always a little more to Bradley’s game offensively outside of being a spot up threat but not enough for it to change how teams used him. Keels falls into a similar category here as someone who can play off the ball but isn’t going to be a disaster if he is forced to pump fake and take a few dribbles to get to a pull-up or move the ball to an open teammate.
Dort is one where the stature really stands out as similar. Both guys are reminiscent to a dancing bear on the court with how they can move laterally at their size and his strength has allowed him to guard up a bit more than most expected. Dort is longer with better vertical athleticism, but I can at least see some similarity there in the overall profile.
Dort’s situation in OKC has helped him get more on-ball reps and fill out his game, but I still wouldn’t feel great with him being anything more than a 4th or 5th option in a starting lineup. The shot is inconsistent at best, but his willingness to take them off in a variety of contexts at least forces teams to guard him in a way that doesn’t clog an offense. Keels fits this mold here and while not the overall athlete Dort is I think he is more skilled at this stage of his career.
The Bryn Forbes reference here may sound a little wacky for a prospect with defensive pedigree and a questionable shot but hear me out. I believe Keels’ game off the bounce is more similar than you might think, he is comfortable getting into a 1 or 2 dribble pull-up, can struggle to elevate at the rim and generally makes good decisions passing to teammates despite occasional bouts tunnel vision. Someone who can improve an offense by simply not screwing it up.
On the defensive side, even after he bulked up, Forbes has struggled to have anything close to a positive impact due to his limited ability to contest taller players and general disengagement. Keels is undoubtedly a better defender, but the lack of size must be at least somewhat of a concern. I don’t think Keels will be anything close to the negative that Forbes is on that end of the floor, but I cannot get images of wings like PG and KD simply shooting over Forbes out of my head. Standing reach matters, and it is hard to shake the idea Keels could suffer the same fate when switched up a lineup.
Fits: Miami, Atlanta, Dallas, Utah
My favorite fit for Keels has to be in Miami, I would be really curious as to what they could do with him athletically. There is no greater situation for physical development in the league and for a guy who is already strong as hell I wonder if being put into a place where his conditioning has no choice but to become excellent would unlock some latent athleticism we didn’t get to see at Duke. He would be a fun fit next to Herro in the back-court with the ability to take more difficult defensive assignments without having to run much offense and would be able to follow in the footsteps of Kyle Lowry on his way to the acreage hall of fame.
I am starting to realize I really like the fit of a ton of different prospects in Atlanta despite the fact they seem to have a logjam at every position. He would be fun to pair next to either Tre or Sharife in their back court to help cover some of their weaknesses in a way that I just don’t trust Huerter or Bogdanovic to do effectively. The Hawks could use some guard defense and a competitor like Keels could help in a multitude of potential lineups.
The fit in Dallas is another one next to some real initiators where he won’t be asked to do much. Dallas has had a great defensive season but looking at their roster another bench wing who can guard isn’t a terrible fit. He’d never have to create and offers some amount of insurance going forward. I would prefer a forward-sized pick for the Mavs personally, but I really like the potential fit from Keels’ perspective.
Utah is another sneaky fun fit here. Can anyone on this roster guard the ball? More importantly, is anyone on this roster even willing to try? The point of attack defense has been abominable for a few years now and it places a real cap on their ability to field a competitive defense in the playoffs. I love Royce O’Neal, but they are overly reliant on him to guard lead initiators night in and night out, beyond him there just aren’t many options. Draft Keels, let him take some POA duties and let Royce do his thing against bigger wings. Feels like an easy solution, albeit one that does nothing to fix their utter lack of help-side rim protection. You win some, you lose some.
Wits: How important is vertical athleticism in a role player? How efficient do you have to be to make teams guard you from 3? When in the draft should you start drafting for easily translatable skill set over upside?
There is a lot to like about Keels, particularly on the defensive end. He is going to find minutes because of his play on that side of the floor. Coaches are going to love his competitiveness and the need for solid perimeter defense can be found throughout the league.
How valuable is guard defense in actuality? That is a debate that should probably take an entire post, but in short - not as important as big or forward defense, but it can help to cover up other roster flaws. Having guys that are good at funneling drives into help, can blow up ball-screens, chase shooters around movement off-ball and have active hands can really help paper over other defensive sins throughout a roster.
In a league littered with offense-first, defense-maybe guards and initiators it is important to have at least one player in the back-court that is willing and able to take more difficult assignments. If that player is also able to provide shooting gravity to an offense and some amount of PnR creation their game becomes much more scalable.
Even if he is not able to make enough shots off the catch to cement a permanent place as a starter or is stuck behind two high level guards Keels should be able to bring real value to bench lineups. I would not use him as a point guard in those lineups, but few backup guards are able to run an entire offense on their own and Keels’ ability to run a PnR and take care of the ball becomes even more valuable.
The shot is by far the biggest question and is one I am not qualified to answer. Watching him shoot throughout the year there were a lot of close misses, but also some really ugly ones. For someone who has little hesitation taking jumpers I would have expect the results to be a little more consistent. That comfort getting shots up goes a long way towards being guarded in the league and the path to league average does not seem as treacherous as the numbers may suggest.
I really liked watching Keels this season and hope he can carve out a role at the next level. He is just a fun player to watch with his physical playstyle and tough shot-making. He is one of the youngest prospects in this class but showed a maturity well beyond his years on both sides of the ball. That is the exact kind of player I want to bet on figuring it out in the league. He may not have made shots as consistently as you’d like, but when he was playing well, he was a major driving force for winning basketball. Keels is a gamer who consistently showed up in big moments throughout the year.
It can be easy to get caught up in a limited ceiling and questionable athletic tools, but sometimes it’s important to take a step back and consider how a player will be used in the league. If Keels can shoot just league average, you have someone who is going to hound opposing guards and can fit into a low-usage role without drastically limiting his effectiveness while being able to take on a slightly larger burden when playing in bench lineups. That feels like a pretty safe bet to fit on any NBA roster regardless of context and prospects like that return 1st round value, typically top 20 value. Sometimes it really is as simple as that.
All Box Score Stats provided by tankathon.com
Shot Distribution and Advanced Stats provided by barttorvik.com
Points Per Possession Stats and Percentiles provided by synergysportstech.com